We shape the world and the world shapes us. The problem with scenario-planning-as-usual is that it focuses attention on exogenous variables — how the world shapes us — without enough consideration for how we might shape the world.
“To the extent that we mimic scientists in claiming value-free objectivity in our view of the future, we deny the very thing that makes us good human beings and good futurists,” insisted James Ogilvy in Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow.
I’ve written about this topic in posts on “Objective and subjective scenario planning” and on Adam Kahane’s whole-system-in-the-room approach to scenarios.
Last year, I also penned an article on the iconic scenario tool, the 2×2 matrix, for the Portland-based arts and environment magazine Bear Deluxe. The article is now online.